考虑多因素影响的毒气扩散风险潜势图构建

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.11.026

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (11): 175-181.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.11.026

考虑多因素影响的毒气扩散风险潜势图构建

吕伟^1,2 副教授, 蒋翠玲², 姜雅娟², 赵彩虹², 汪京辉², 李加伟²

1 武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉 430070;
2 武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉 430070

收稿日期:2020-08-15 修回日期:2020-10-17 出版日期:2020-11-28
作者简介:吕伟 (1989—),男,河南信阳人,博士,副教授,主要从事公共安全、应急管理和交通安全等方面的研究。E-mail: weil@whut.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(52072286,51604204);中国博士后科学基金资助(2018M632937);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2019IVA075,2019III053GX)。

Construction of risk potential map of toxic gas diffusion considering influence of multiple factors

LYU Wei^1,2, JIANG Cuiling², JIANG Yajuan², ZHAO Caihong², WANG Jinghui², LI Jiawei²

1 China Research Center for Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China;
2 School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China

Received:2020-08-15 Revised:2020-10-17 Published:2020-11-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为分析危化品在运输途中的泄漏扩散风险,考虑不确定性风况、扩散源位置和周边社会环境等多因素的影响,利用情景假设法确定扩散源位置,结合建筑分布和人口信息表征人口密度分布,通过风向图信息量化风况发生的可能性;提出一种可用于全面评估毒气扩散可能影响范围的毒气泄漏扩散风险潜势图构建方法,结合情景假设,实例分析液氯泄漏扩散场景。结果表明:考虑风向的不确定性能够更加全面地评估毒气扩散可能影响的范围;利用建筑分布及其容纳人数信息可以量化表征区域人口密度因素。

关键词: 毒气扩散, 风险潜势图, 危化品运输, 风险分析, 风向

Abstract: In order to analyze leakage and diffusion risk of hazardous chemicals during transportation, with influence of multiple factors taken into consideration, including uncertain wind condition, position of diffusion source and surrounding social environment, location of diffusion source was determined by scenario hypothesis. Then, population density distribution was characterized based on building distribution and population information, and possibility of wind condition was quantified by wind direction map. Finally, a construction method of risk potential map of toxic gas diffusion was proposed for comprehensive evaluation of possible influence area, and a case of liquid chlorine leakage and diffusion was analyzed by using scenario hypothesis. The results show that possible influence range of toxic gas diffusion can be more comprehensively evaluated with uncertainty of wind direction being considered. And regional population density can be quantitatively characterized by utilizing information of building distribution and number of people it can accommodate.

Key words: toxic gas diffusion, risk potential map, hazardous chemicals transportation, risk analysis, wind direction

中图分类号:

X913.4

吕伟, 蒋翠玲, 姜雅娟, 赵彩虹, 汪京辉, 李加伟. 考虑多因素影响的毒气扩散风险潜势图构建[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(11): 175-181.

LYU Wei, JIANG Cuiling, JIANG Yajuan, ZHAO Caihong, WANG Jinghui, LI Jiawei. Construction of risk potential map of toxic gas diffusion considering influence of multiple factors[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(11): 175-181.

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考虑多因素影响的毒气扩散风险潜势图构建

Construction of risk potential map of toxic gas diffusion considering influence of multiple factors

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